MOLITICS MEDIA OF POLITICS ARTICLE

December 26, 2019

BJP’s Poll Debacle: How BJP Failed to Understand the mood of voters

The JMM-Congress-RJD is all set to form the next government in Jharkhand, dislodging the BJP which ruled the State for the last 5 years. The pre-poll alliance between Congress, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has won majority with a total of 47 seats between them. Out of the three, JMM won 30 seats, Congress won 16 seats and RJD won one seat.

The Raghubar Das-led party which jumped into the fray elections sans allies, was limited to only 25 seats, far below the majority mark. The incumbent CM Raghubar Das could not even retain his seat. He lost the Jamshedpur East seat by a margin of over 15k votes to the independent candidate Saryu Roy.

The BJP was seeking a fresh mandate for itself in Jharkhand and the party had set a target of 65-plus seats out of the total 81 assembly seats in this election. Past precedents show that wherever the PM Narendra Modi was not a direct factor, the BJP could not win the elections. Only few months back, in Lok Sabha elections, the people gave a favorable mandate to the BJP. However, in these assembly elections people judged BJP as a party and Raghubar Das as the head of the BJP Govt.

In last 2 years, the BJP lost power in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra. Now, its ruling just in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar and Haryana. So, after Maharashtra, BJP’s defeat in Jharkhand leaves us with a question, Is Modi’s magic waning in States?

Here are few reasons that cost the BJP the Jharkhand elections.

PM face was not a factor on the basis of which voters voted

The Voters this time were aware of the fact that it is their local candidate that is CM face, who will have a greater say in the development of the State. Despite PM Modi’s assertion of double-engine growth model with him at the Centre and a BJP government in the state, the voters this time were intelligent enough to understand that it is a local leader who will have his/her say in governing them.

Raghubar Das, a ‘Rude’ politician!

After Raghubar Das was hand-picked by the Modi Govt for the CM post in 2014, people in Jharkhand complained “power got to his head”. Even the BJP leaders in the state could not deny the fact that his negative image helped the opposition win the just concluded assembly elections. One of his videos which went viral on social media, showed a gaffe where Raghubar Das was heard saying “Jharkhand will be the first adivasi-mukt state”.

Non-tribal CM

This time BJP paid the price for experimenting with a non-tribal CM, in a state where Scheduled tribes constitute 27% of the population. Party’s attempt to win OBC votes in it’s favor by choosing Raghubar Das as the CM face, has cost the BJP dearly in Jharkhand.

With JMM winning more than 20 of the total 28 seats reserved for scheduled tribe, is a clear indication that the tribals in Jharkhand are moving from the BJP camp to the JMM side.

Wrong bills passed under the Das Govt

The manner in which the Das govt amended the land laws — the Santhal Pargana Tenancy (SPT) Act and the Chotanagpur Tenancy Act (CNT) — in 2016, had hurt the tribal sentiments. The tribals believed that amendments were made to facilitate acquisition of land for development projects. Jharkhand witnessed state-wide protests over this issue. The anti-conversion bill was another troubling aspect. The tribal Christians, who had voted for the BJP-AJSU alliance in 2014 saw the anti-conversion bill as a move to target them.

Corruption

The BJP came to power in 2014 after it charged the Congress party of rampant corruption, however, the past 5-years show that BJP is not a “Party with a difference.” In Jharkhand, the people believe that BJP did not have a different approach towards this issue and most of its MLA’s who were given party ticket faced corruption charges and thus had tainted image.

Going solo in these assembly elections, shows BJP’s overconfidence

Since the creation of Jharkhand in 2000, this was the first time that the BJP contested the polls alone. The trend from the counting of votes in Jharkhand shows that the BJP would have been at advantageous position had it conceded to demands by the All Jharkhand Students Union Party (AJSUP) in the assembly election. Besides, BJP’s failure to stitch alliance with AJSU led to the divison of Kurmi votes, which in turn helped the opposition alliance.

Local issues

Issues such as Unemployment, downfall in the Indian economy and farm crisis dominated the assembly polls this time. There was growing resentment against the ruling party as it failed to resolve any of these issues. Jharkhand is the second poorest state in the country.

When BJP came to power in 2014, it promised to create jobs by attracting more investment. However, the NSSO data reveals that the rural unemployment is higher than the national average in Jharkhand.

Though just after the results to the assembly elections were announced, BJP leaders distanced Prime Minister Narendra Modi from the verdict as they maintained that had it not been for the Prime Minister, the BJP’s tally would have been lower. Jharkhand has joined the growing list of states slipping out of BJP’s rule, the party now governs mere 35 per cent of the country’s landmass in comparison to over 71 per cent in 2017.

With all that being said, the question still remains, has the PM Modi lost his charisma to influence the electorate?

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